Thursday, November 24, 2022

Brands and their value over time.

Let's remember homo sapiens believes in stories. Strongly so. Maybe much too strongly so.

Adrian S. Petrescu, Ph.D., J.D.

"I have learned the novice can often see things that the expert overlooks. All that is necessary is to not be afraid of making mistakes or appearing naive." Abraham Maslow (1908-70)
"Cogito, ergo sum" (Rene Descartes, 1596-1650) 
"Who is John Galt?"

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Knowledge is a basket of blueberries

Saturday, February 5, 2022

#Count [11]

 #Count _correct_ units of analysis. Don't get bogged by incorrect ones.

Take an EV company. Is current US market share in EVs sold by each company the correct unit of analysis? It's obviously a time & space particularized slice. Will this enable you to learn & predict what may happen in ten years? In twenty? Globally, not just in the US?

Capacity? History? Bold vision and a strong past demonstrated track record to implement it, in prior similar instances? Easy, once we see it. How does choosing the incorrect unit of analysis impact predictive power and accuracy?

Take further any wannabe elected official. When running in their first election we can look at campaign statements. That may not be as reliable a measure as one would ever wish for.

It may get slightly better when they run for re-election: we can look at their voting record. Is _that_ sufficient now, though? 

Is it the same as when we choose the elected official to be the US President? For example, President Lyndon Baynes Johnson. In his own words—in an interview after his Presidency—prior to being President he had not enough power to do what he had to do. Albeit he actually had and used quite some power. How then would we determine anything at the time of his election for VP alongside President John F Kennedy, before the latter's tragic death that led to the former becoming President? Could it be bold initiatives accomplished? Or,  maybe bold initiatives _attempted_?

Given more power, would it not help to know how many initiatives attempted there were earlier, as a likely better predictor of what will the power be used for once it'll be there?

This way one will then better train a model of decision making for use later on deductive predictions for daily decisions that may be made by or impact us all. 

Wouldn't you want to predict better from past behaviors of your date how will s/he react once s/he'll turn a spouse when deciding about purchasing a vehicle or home or about having children or who will raise them and how and where will they go to school and what they'll get a chance at becoming in their lives? All decisions likely possibly made better and which in turn in their massive aggregate may lead to humankind achievements of much larger scale. Or failure of much larger "grandeur." And certainly to both, only hopefully at different times and more of the former and less of the latter. 

Is it feasible that one can imagine a world whereby decisions are always intuitively taken better because we learned to understand better how we make decisions and what motivates most of us to make them most often? Even without fully understanding all the mathematics behind it. The way we drive an automobile, better or not so well, without knowing much about the thermodynamics of an internal combustion engine. We could improve by measuring better. (Let's remember, Campbell's Law may simply work both ways. Once you know you can and must proactively compensate for its work.)

In memory of Donald T Campbell and Paul Y Hammond.🙏

Follow in the footsteps of the great.
Look inside.

Adrian S. Petrescu, Ph.D., J.D.
Chief Future Architect, InnovationTrek
We got here. What's next?
Accelerate Innovation. 
In companies and self.
Grow flow. Naturally.

Friday, February 4, 2022

#Count [10]

#Count _all_ the (wannabe) Emperors with "new clothes." It may not be that self evident.

I am thorn: how much should we show how it's done? how much should we let you analyze thoroughly yourself?

Take a CEO of a large EV car company. Measure the influence he has, from his own companies' stock to other unrelated topics, always of importance. He's done some good, and even some great, work. Yet, the outlandish statements and the attempts to lend credibility to himself from fame and richness on issues of no expertise whatsoever are easily tricking a lot of unsuspecting people. 

Take further any other similar attempts. Those most of us barely ever actually see through. Whether a politician says to a few doctors in a televised live show from the White House "if you could try to put the light or disinfectant inside the body" or whether a podcaster pretends to be merely asking questions of "experts," the techniques are all at least as old as when the Mayor (whose name we don't remember) had Socrates poisoned "democratically" for helping youth learn how to think. 

The task may seem daunting, at first, but with training and perseverance you may get better and better at it. 

One great explains it with these simple words:

 "everyone has a _hidden_ agenda." 

Yes. Everyone. All the time. There are no exceptions. 

Dedicated to the memory of Donald T Campbell and Paul H Hammond.🙏

Follow in the footsteps of the great. 
Look inside. 

Adrian S. Petrescu, Ph.D., J.D.
Chief Future Architect, InnovationTrek
We got here. What's next?
Accelerate Innovation. 
In companies and self.
Grow flow. Naturally.

Friday, January 28, 2022

#Count [9]

#Count all the false dichotomies. Move proactively through them, to solutions.

Yesterday I had the honor to hold the third and last section of a class on Our Earth in Space. using Science on a Sphere, and focusing this time on the major achievement of humankind that is James Webb Space Telescope, its perfect launch on Christmas last year, 53 years after Apollo 8, its reaching four days ago its final destination at Lagrange 2 point 1.5 million kilometers away from the dark side of Earth, on its amazing technology including a cryogenic machine ensuring temperatures of about just 6 Kelvin, and on its ongoing shields and instruments deployment schedule and on its plans to discovery of questions it asks and seeks answers to. 🌞🌏🚀🌗🛰🪐💫💧

Imagine my surprise to learn that learners in our group—adults interested in space exploration—, who in the beginning of the class correctly interpreted Sir Isaac Newton's 1687 originating gravitation law, have never heard of Thomas Kuhn's Structure of Scientific Revolutions, nor of the 232 years that passed from then until the 1919 Sir Edington experiments with a Solar Eclipse, proving Albert Einstein correct, dethroned Isaac Newton from being founding "king of Physics". To say nothing about Count de Broglie's work, Heisenberg's uncertainty principle or Schroedinger's cat. We ought to do better at designing and implementing education in our world. 

There is no better feeling than to see the curious eyes of folks learning something new to them that they could've and should've known long time ago. Life is good. Make every day a good day!

Asks us questions on construcral law and particularly on its application to human systems.👇

In memory of Donald T. Campbell and Paul Y Hammond. 🙏

Follow in the footsteps of the great. 
Look inside. 

Adrian S. Petrescu, Ph.D., J.D.
Chief Future Architect, InnovationTrek
We got here. What's next?
Accelerate Innovation. 
In companies and self.
Grow flow. Naturally.

#Count [8]

#Count _everything_ you can be inspired by. This addresses directly how to define _great_.

One of the hardest, yet most important, lessons ever learned.

"Eu nu ți-aș dori vreodată să ajungi să ne cunoști."

[A more complete quote:

"- … Şi, purtat de biruinţă, să mă-mpiedec de-un moşneag? 
- De-un moşneag, da, împărate, căci moşneagul ce priveşti
Nu e om de rând, el este domnul Ţării Româneşti. 
Eu nu ţi-aş dori vrodată să ajungi să ne cunoşti, 
Nici ca Dunărea să-nece spumegând a tale oşti. 
După vremuri mulţi veniră, începând cu acel oaspe, 
Ce din vechi se pomeneşte, cu Dariu a lui Istaspe;
Mulţi durară, după vremuri, peste Dunăre vrun pod, 
De-au trecut cu spaima lumii şi mulţime de norod;
Împăraţi pe care lumea nu putea să-i mai încapă
Au venit şi-n ţara noastră de-au cerut pământ şi apă -
Şi nu voi ca să mă laud, nici că voi să te-nspăimânt, 
Cum veniră, se fă*ă toţi o apă ş-un pământ. 
Te făleşti că înainte-ţi răsturnat-ai valvârtej
Oştile leite-n zale de-mpăraţi şi de viteji? 
Tu te lauzi că Apusul înainte ţi s-a pus?... 
Ce-i mâna pe ei în luptă, ce-au voit acel Apus? 
Laurii voiau să-i smulgă de pe funtea ta de fier, 
A credinţei biruinţă căta orice cavaler. 
Eu? Îmi apăr sărăcia şi nevoile şi neamul... 
Şi de-aceea _tot ce mişcă-n ţara asta, râul, ramul_, 
Mi-e prieten numai mie, iară ţie duşman este, 
Duşmănit vei fi de toate, făr-a prinde chiar de veste;
N-avem oşti, dară iubirea de moşie e un zid
Care nu se-nfiorează de-a ta faimă, Baiazid!"—Mihai Eminescu, Scrisoarea a treia.]

This here and now is betting on our unfair advantage in the world. As Free Dacians. (Born and taught in Romanian—at least partially, if lucky enough in this world—, and hence able to read or hear and comprehend in the Romanian language.) 

It is quite a select club, us knowers of the Romanian language. As I suggested earlier, I _had to_ get to Texas. When I got there, a fine gentleman told me he self taught himself (sufficient) Romanian to be able to read Mihai Eminescu. The brilliant words spoken just for here and now in our #️⃣🧛‍♂️ series are included. In comments you'll find a link to the written translation into English—yet it's never the same thing. 

The science of why this matters—constructal law—follows tomorrow (at [9]). 

In memory of Donald T Campbell and Paul Y Hammond. 🙏

Follow in the footsteps of the great. 
Look inside. 

Mihai Eminescu—Scrisoarea a treia. 

Romanian language.

English translation.

Letter III - excerpt [Scrisoarea III - fragment]
"There! A peace envoy is coming with a kerchief on a stick Bayezid, watching him closely, a fierce quarrel wants to pick:
– What'd you want?
– We? Peace and quiet! And if you are not hostile
Our prince would like to chatter with Your Highness for a while.
At a sign, they let him enter and draws near, the tent to reach,
An old man dressed in plain garments, with a simple lovely speech.
– Are you Mircea?
– Yes, Your Highness!
– I demand you to kneel down,
Or I'll lay upon your forehead a disgraceful thorny crown.
– I don't really mind, Your Highness, why you've come and what you do, While we are at peace, however, I shall warmly welcome you. [...]"

Further, here (pp. 57-59):

We take the opportunity to introduce the reader to even more MIhai Eminescu, in English. Enjoy.

Adrian S. Petrescu, Ph.D., J.D.
Chief Future Architect, InnovationTrek
We got here. What's next?
Accelerate Innovation. 
In companies and self.
Grow flow. Naturally.